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Current probability for each outcome
Event: Professional boxing bout “Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua” (the “Fight”).
Market Type: Moneyline – Who wins the Fight?
Market Close:
This market will close at the scheduled start of the Fight (first bell of Round 1) or earlier at Apefirst Prediction’ discretion. Once closed, no further trading will be allowed.
Resolution Deadline:
The market will be resolved as soon as an official result is available and verified, typically within 24 hours of the Fight’s conclusion.
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves based on the official result of the Fight:
“Jake Paul” – if Jake Paul is declared the official winner of the Fight by:
“Anthony Joshua” – if Anthony Joshua is declared the official winner of the Fight by:
If the official result is a draw (including majority or split draw), technical draw, or no contest, the market will not resolve to either fighter and will instead be treated under the Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions below.
Resolution Details
The market resolves based on the first official result of the Fight, using the following hierarchy:
The result announced in the ring by the official ring announcer, as authorized by the relevant athletic/boxing commission overseeing the Fight.
If the in-ring announcement is unclear, disputed, or not available, the official result as published by the relevant athletic/boxing commission or governing body on its official channels.
If there is still ambiguity, the consensus result as listed by at least two reputable boxing record or news sources (for example: BoxRec, major sports networks, or the official event promoter’s post-fight communication).
Additional details:
Stoppages: Any stoppage where one fighter is declared the winner (KO, TKO, corner retirement, doctor stoppage, or disqualification) will result in that fighter being the winning outcome.
Technical decisions: If the Fight is stopped due to cuts, injury, or accidental foul after the minimum number of completed rounds required for a decision (as per the governing commission’s rules) and goes to the scorecards, the fighter declared the winner on points will be the winning outcome.
Result changes / appeals:
If the official result is changed (for example, due to scoring error) within 24 hours and is widely reported by primary sources as above, Myriad Markets may resolve based on the corrected result.
Result changes, overturns, or disciplinary rulings occurring more than 24 hours after the initial official announcement will not be reflected in the market; the market will remain resolved based on the original official result.
Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions
The market will be cancelled (invalid) if any of the following occur:
Fight does not take place:
The Fight is officially cancelled and no official result is recorded.
Either Jake Paul or Anthony Joshua is replaced by another opponent (any change to the named matchup “Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua” invalidates the market).
Excessive postponement:
The Fight is postponed and does not take place (with both named fighters) within a reasonable timeframe as determined by Apefirst Predicts (e.g., if it is not held within an extended postponement window set by the platform).
Draw / No Contest:
The Fight is officially ruled a draw (including majority or split draw) or a technical draw.
The Fight is declared a no contest for any reason (e.g., accidental foul, failed pre-fight medicals discovered after the bout, in-ring incidents that void the result).
Lack of reliable result data:
No official result is available from the commission and reputable sources, or there is persistent, material disagreement between primary sources that cannot be reasonably resolved.
Effect of Cancellation
In the event of cancellation/invalidity:
The market will not resolve to “Jake Paul” or “Anthony Joshua”.
Participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation.
This could result in either a profit or a loss for participants, depending on the price of their outstanding shares when the cancellation is processed
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